View Full Version : A3 Prediction
I have a feeling the A3 is dead. We'll see. But given that it didn't make its targeted release date and since it wasn't much of a gain over the A2, my guess is that Cowon will ride the Windows-based Q5 and scrap the plans to release an A3. A sad day for Linux advocates looking for an updated A2.
Again, this isn't news, but I do believe scrapping the A3 is something likely to happen.
NcowNteR
04-11-2007, 08:44
i'm not sure i hear all sorts of rumours like that the A3 will be to expensive for cowon, or as you say the scrap the plan of the a3 and others again say it will be launched at the beginning of june i'm Suspicious what cowon is doing at the moment
ecardwell1
04-11-2007, 11:50
What if they have scrapped it as is. Maybe they will rework interface to mimic the touchscreen of the D2? Just speculation. No need for controls...more room for screen.
zaphanathpaneah
04-11-2007, 13:24
What if they have scrapped it as is. Maybe they will rework interface to mimic the touchscreen of the D2? Just speculation. No need for controls...more room for screen.
That would be unlikely. If they reworked the controls then it would take the screen up a notch to around 5 inches and that is Q5 territory. No need to have two 5 inch devices that have the same feature set. It is more likely that the A3 is scrapped. This shows that COWON is in serious trouble and will be out of the game soon. Failing to deliver products over and over again is not good business practice. They loose consumer confidence and thus market share. Gentlemen this is a sad day for COWON and it's time to start looking for another company to feed our gadget hunger.
As popular as COWON is in Korea they need to make further headway in the US and EU to stay in business and that would advertising. Something COWON can't afford to do outside of Korea.
oh, I hope they release this device in USA/Canada! :-(
TNo need to have two 5 inch devices that have the same feature set. It is more likely that the A3 is scrapped. This shows that COWON is in serious trouble and will be out of the game soon. Failing to deliver products over and over again is not good business practice. They loose consumer confidence and thus market share. Gentlemen this is a sad day for COWON and it's time to start looking for another company to feed our gadget hunger.
With that said, Cowon has been successful and has a reputation for dropping product line. So... I don't think dropping the A3 is necessarily a deadly act. The Q5 will have mass US appeal just because it runs Windows (geeks in the US are generally blinded by Microsoft). So I think Cowon will do alright. The A2, still has life, just need to remarket it somehow to breathe life back into it.
I mean... you think you want the D900, etc. in the USA, but the quality of those devices may be questionable. Even the V43, is hard to get... and T43 is impossible to get. Archos is still the prime competitor in the states... yet the price tag vs the A2 is $100-200 higher after it is all said and done.
Cowon can still own the US (oddly enough) just because their other Korean/Chinese counterparts are worse a worldwide distribution than Cowon.... with the exception of French.... Archos is well established in the USA.
The Cowon D2 is making quite a run. Cowon could simply rest on that for awhile. People like small powerful devices... but it's hardly a video player (extremely limited disk space).... Cowon has some time. The Q5 will buy them some time (looks similar in look and feel to the D2... which is nothing like the A2). We'll see if Cowon comes back in another year with a quality device like the A2... but the A2 is STILL a better player than most Korean/Chinese 2007 players... and it the USA, there really isn't a single competitor.
philadiophile
04-14-2007, 13:29
Failing to release an A2 Version 1 player (i.e. A3) would be far from a deadly act simply because they have a super do-all player in the wings. Quite honestly I was underwhelmed @ the A3 having minor improvements with half of them being stuff that could be implemented on the A2 via firmware (PDF & Office document reading) while the only hardware change that was tempting is the increased storage. Now if they was to be iffy on the release of the Q5... THEN I would be concerned for Cowen's future since that is a indication of the next step forward that PMP's will be taking.
eoniverse
04-14-2007, 18:10
I have seen a sudden decrease in the number of A2 refurbs. I suspect that Cowon knows A2 sales will die after the release of the A3 and I'm hoping they have been delaying the A3 release to get the 'old stuff' sold.
ecardwell1
04-14-2007, 22:35
If you notice on cowon.com, when going to 'PMP'...there are two squares next to the A2. I am hoping that those will soon be filled by the A3 and the Q5. Oh please let it be.
that has been there for a long time..almost a year...
ecardwell1
04-15-2007, 07:23
Sorry, I have just been a visitor to cowon.com since the A3 was announced at CES 2007.
nothing to be sorry about man!! :D
here's an idea: stop wasting money in korea!
the market theyre is already crowded with samsung, maxian, viliv and i-station.
in europe and the us, Archos basically have the market to themselfs, if cowon took money out of korea and put it inot eu & us, they could take most of archos's share
well thats what i think
i've been waiting for a long time to buy that "famous A3" but finaly bought 2 days ago the "D2" cuz i think that teh A3 will see the light later this summer or in 2008 ,so waitting is just killing us and getting us so nervous.
Cowon didnt have to show that model untill they got a a real specifiv date to release it, : " Cowon ,u should care more about us "
zaphanathpaneah
04-16-2007, 14:31
Failing to release an A2 Version 1 player (i.e. A3) would be far from a deadly act simply because they have a super do-all player in the wings. Quite honestly I was underwhelmed @ the A3 having minor improvements with half of them being stuff that could be implemented on the A2 via firmware (PDF & Office document reading) while the only hardware change that was tempting is the increased storage. Now if they was to be iffy on the release of the Q5... THEN I would be concerned for Cowen's future since that is a indication of the next step forward that PMP's will be taking.
This is not the only reason. If you look back at the notes that were posted by jenifer, you will see the reason for the dim look at Cowon. I am the great fan of COWON however they are dropping behind in market share intheir home furf of KOREA and VERY slow to penetrate the US or EU. the need to be sucessful in one turf to have the $$ to penetrate the others. Marketing inthe US is exstreamly expensive but if is worth it. Just look at the icrap..opps i mean igarbage...damn....could never spell this right... I mean iPod. it is ALL marketing. An inferior product has become the #1 player on the market because of good marketing. COWON cannot rely on this forum and or word of mouth to penetrate the US or EU. If they can deliver a superior product free from major bugs (and we know they can with some effort) They can become #2 in the US (right now Apple and creative has the market cornered) They can become # 1 if the totally redesigned the D2 to become an x5 replacement. It should have a 3" screen, super long battery life (like the D2) have the "cool factor", and a killer interface, (e.g ...http://www.engadget.com/photos/intels-mid-umpc-so-long-xp-vista-hello-linux/214491/) I guarantee if they can pull that off with out infrindging on any patents to get sued, it will be number 1.
Jennifer, I guess, doesn't know that almost NONE of the Korean players (certainly not the top ones) are available in the US at ALL. So the fact that Cowon has some market penetration you would think would account for something. Maybe all Koreans are just horribly wealthy (I don't know) and can buy every PMP that is made... I know that's not they way it is in the USA, so the fact that the Cowon A2 is one of the most preferred and sought after PMPs in the states perhaps isn't interesting (?).
USA is dominated by Archos and Cowon. The iPod doesn't have a large wide screen PMP here (AFAIK). The Creative:W is ok, but just as a player (not a recorder) and IMHO, it has a cheap screen (and it's Creative, so it will break in a year).
I know I prefer the simplistic interface of the A2. I do NOT want a touch screen interface. Something about constantly putting my fingerprints all over a screen. That and the fact that touch screens are not as good quality wise. I think most people who don't like the A2, just really haven't used the interfaces that come with other players. I much prefer the A2. I mean, what good is an interface that constantly locks up (e.g. Creative's)? I've never had to use the reset hole on the A2. The A2's interface is awesome in comparison.... and it looks good.... REALLY good. I don't need dancing icons. The interface is clear and easy to read.... leave the wiz-bang to hollywood.
Maxian, Digital Cube, iUBI... not available here AT ALL.
Much of iPod's popularity can be directly attributed to the fact that the company is Apple. It really didn't have to be a great device at all. And it didn't need much marketing either. Just one ad for every 10 competitors ads would probably have worked for Apple... of course, Apple always goes over the top on media... so they slaughtered the market with ads.
zaphanathpaneah
04-18-2007, 09:32
Jennifer, I guess, doesn't know that almost NONE of the Korean players (certainly not the top ones) are available in the US at ALL. So the fact that Cowon has some market penetration you would think would account for something. Maybe all Koreans are just horribly wealthy (I don't know) and can buy every PMP that is made... I know that's not they way it is in the USA, so the fact that the Cowon A2 is one of the most preferred and sought after PMPs in the states perhaps isn't interesting (?).
USA is dominated by Archos and Cowon. The iPod doesn't have a large wide screen PMP here (AFAIK). The Creative:W is ok, but just as a player (not a recorder) and IMHO, it has a cheap screen (and it's Creative, so it will break in a year).
I know I prefer the simplistic interface of the A2. I do NOT want a touch screen interface. Something about constantly putting my fingerprints all over a screen. That and the fact that touch screens are not as good quality wise. I think most people who don't like the A2, just really haven't used the interfaces that come with other players. I much prefer the A2. I mean, what good is an interface that constantly locks up (e.g. Creative's)? I've never had to use the reset hole on the A2. The A2's interface is awesome in comparison.... and it looks good.... REALLY good. I don't need dancing icons. The interface is clear and easy to read.... leave the wiz-bang to hollywood.
Maxian, Digital Cube, iUBI... not available here AT ALL.
Much of iPod's popularity can be directly attributed to the fact that the company is Apple. It really didn't have to be a great device at all. And it didn't need much marketing either. Just one ad for every 10 competitors ads would probably have worked for Apple... of course, Apple always goes over the top on media... so they slaughtered the market with ads.
Dude I agree with you. The A2 is very sweet. Cowon has some penetration in the US market but it could be better you must agree. I have owned an ipod for a little while. (1 month before I sold it) Cowon could have greater market share witht he A3 and Q5.
Dude I agree with you. The A2 is very sweet. Cowon has some penetration in the US market but it could be better you must agree. I have owned an ipod for a little while. (1 month before I sold it) Cowon could have greater market share witht he A3 and Q5.
Yep.. could be better. I think (not sure?) that perhaps Cowon is mostly a technology company (that is... pretty much ZERO in the marketing dept). There could be other reasons for not wanting a greater marketshare ... for example, the inability to actually satisfy the demand.
Look at PCs. Everyone wants to have "Dell success"... for example AMD wanted to get onboard with the Dell gravy train. Then it finally happened. Suddenly AMD had to supply an ORDER OF MAGNITUDE higher amount of chips.... what can you do??? Success can change the rules so dramatically that you can collapse under your own weight.
Cowon obviously doesn't even consider website updates to be a priority. This alone would increase their marketshare considerably... esp in the USA where there is http://jetmall.net. If they choose a good technology, updating their website would be trivial (CMS and/or Wiki like) and the content would be fresh rather than merely RSS/forum like feed displays being the sole source of fresh content. :)
I would love to work for Cowon. I'm positive I could help make them the #1 supplier of portable media devices (even ahead of Apple)... IF that's what they want. But they'd have to be prepared to handle the market demand. And I don't think they can handle it.
PerlAddict
04-18-2007, 12:26
All of those statements are pretty vague, especially the AMD example - it doesn't sound like you've kept up with AMD's progress as a company at all. How much exactly is an "order of magnitude" quantified into real numbers? Dell starting supplying customers with AMD chips indirectly when they acquired Alienware; the whole offering has been a process, not an overnight change. Do you have any idea what the actual sales numbers are for AMD-equipped Dell machines? Especially in light of last year's Conroe launch by Intel? And how does that compare to their overall business model and profits posted this last fiscal year? Simply citing one business deal they've had and gleaning a gross assumption from it doesn't do much your overall credibility on business and marketing strategies.
Do you have any idea what Cowon's marketing plan actually is, what the Asian market and demographic is versus America's for their PMP lines in actual numbers, what costs are under consideration in the business model (taking into account financial decisions aside from simple manufacturing costs versus MSRP sales, such as export and import expenditures and tariffs), or statistics indicating what percentage of PMP users are actively seeking Cowon products and how much a revised website would actually affect the appeal of their product?
It's easy to talk a big game, but there's a reason Apple has the market share they do for the products they produce, and it's not very dependant on any of the solutions you mentioned for Cowon. Websites themselves don't have near the impact on initial sales - something has to drive a user to the website and product before it's of any importance, and it's the something that's driving them there that is the key to the sales. Websites are more after-the-sale support. Marketing has to get customers to the company first.
I would love to work for Cowon. I'm positive I could help make them the #1 supplier of portable media devices (even ahead of Apple)... IF that's what they want. But they'd have to be prepared to handle the market demand. And I don't think they can handle it.
...said a whole lot of "stuff"...
Granted, as I stated, I can only suspect things with regards to Cowon. The company could be much larger... and I have NO doubt about that. And companies have their own reasons for not growing.... and there's nothing wrong with that either.
I don't argue with your notion of marketing... and I don't think I said anything that implied I was against that. Another poster mentioned something about the fact that Cowon doesn't update any information on the their website, and that is very true. Since Cowon's current sales are mostly driven (in the USA) by the web, it makes good sense to focus a bit more on that. Whether or not that is the best marketing plan for the USA, is another issue. It's merely an observation that they are not exploiting the marketing path they have currently made.... who knows... maybe they are going to try something different. We'll see. Personally, I bought a Cowon because of the information gleaned from the web.... where else would you find information about Cowon? Maybe I'm missing their true marketing.... I guess...
So.. here's a question for iaudiophiles... how did you find out about Cowon? Alot say word of mouth, I know I found out by searching on the web. Just curious (probably deserves a new thread).
PerlAddict, I hope your faith in AMD is well founded.... I do like them as a technology company, really... but I do see a lot of trouble ahead for them.
It seems that you really know your stuff... so perhaps you can post some information to give us all some better insight into the PMP markets abroad. We tend to be great fans of Cowon here... and that's going to make us more frustrated when we see an apparent lack of diligence (news) from the company.
i coudn't have sed it better pearladdict!!
@cjcox, he never said that he would be able to provide that kind of information. when you say you can "help make them the #1 supplier of portable media devices (even ahead of Apple)" (ahem) you should be able to work out all that stuff. and just for your info..AMD is not falling apart or does not have a lot of trouble ahead of them.
So... I say one thing (with no evidence).. you say another (with no evidence)... your right and I'm wrong. I see.
i've never read anywhere of AMD getting too far behind in the processor wars. that's why i said i don't see why they hould have problems in the future.
Hmmm... you don't think AMD is behind? Ok. I think there's a preponderance of evidence that AMD is behind and falling further behind everyday. I mean AMD is trying to catch up with Intel's LAST generation. Their new generation takes things even further. AMD made a big mistake in not making dual core a standard about a year before Intel had their first part. Intel has responed with a hammer... and IMHO, it doesn't look pretty for AMD.
AMD's acquisition of ATI only alienated AMD's only player on the high end (Nvidia). ATI, which was THE onboard graphics supplier for Intel server boards, is going to be displaced now (because of AMD's dealings) with their own chip... and Nvidia is already cozying up to Intel since AMD told them to take a hike. It just doesn't look like AMD has thought things through. AMD's struggles to meet Dell's enormous supply demands hasn't helped either (a case where too much success can kill). Of course, Dell waited WAY too long to get onboard with AMD and totally missed the AMD glory year (leaving HP in a VERY good position moving forward).
As I said, I really like AMD's technology though. So I do hope they can turn things around. I don't see them profitable for at least another 5 years though (and then only if they can come up something revolutionary, and nothing revolutionary is on AMD's roadmap at the moment).
Even Sun, the only true believer in AMD when it was cool to believe in AMD, has announced the beginning of their Intel line for x86 Solaris.
(sorry for straying so far off topic)
PerlAddict
04-19-2007, 08:56
I mean AMD is trying to catch up with Intel's LAST generation. Their new generation takes things even further. AMD made a big mistake in not making dual core a standard about a year before Intel had their first part.
How do you figure? Conroe was Intel's follow-up dual-core and their answer to AMD, seeing as when AMD and Intel released their first generation dual-cores, AMD's chips blew Intel's out of the water (http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-10442_7-6389077-1.html).
Intel has been playing catch-up to AMD ever since their last generation. Now they've got their ducks in a row for the time being with their new generation of processors, and AMD is playing the catch-up game back to Intel. I like both technologies in their own respects and C2D has been a great advancement, but Intel was severely lagging behind AMD's dual-cores prior to this new generation.
Have you looked at last year's profits and sales reports? AMD's sales climbed by a significant percentage in the first two quarters of 2006, and then dropped severely back after June, which isn't suprising given all the Conroe hype and its launch date of July 14th. Even after Conroe's launch, Intel's sales remained more than 20% lower than they had been at the start of the year. AMD took a big hit in Q3 and Q4 of 2006, but they've been progressing well these past few years.
http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/thumb-intcamd.jpg
As for web-driven products - yes, the A2 was largely driven by the web. But was it driven by people typing in "Cowon A2" into Google and going to straight to Cowon's page? It's other websites and marketing that drive the sales - reviewers like Engadget, CNet, DAPReview, hordes of CES bloggers, etc. expose us to these products. The corporate website is a follow-up ... something has to get the information about the product and its site into your hands first. That's not a Cowon specific business model - that's Marketing 101. You have to seek out your consumers; you can't wait for them to seek out you.
I'm sure you have plenty of nice ideas to tidy things up, but claiming you could "make <anyone> the #1 supplier of portable media devices (even ahead of Apple)" would be an arrogant faux pas at the very least if you actually worked in the industry professionally, and is just laughable coming from an outsider. There's a reason Apple has the market share they do, and it's not because they have an amazing product or a clean and informative website.
...
Intel has been playing catch-up to AMD ever since their last generation. Now they've got their ducks in a row for the time being with their new generation of processors, and AMD is playing the catch-up game back to Intel. I like both technologies in their own respects and C2D has been a great advancement, but Intel was severely lagging behind AMD's dual-cores prior to this new generation.
Technology wise, that was an EON ago. Intel is about two generational steps ahead of AMD currently. Intel will probably release an eight core shortly after AMD delivers their first (lackluster) 4 core.
Have you looked at last year's profits and sales reports? AMD's sales climbed by a significant percentage in the first two quarters of 2006, and then dropped severely back after June, which isn't suprising given all the Conroe hype and its launch date of July 14th. Even after Conroe's launch, Intel's sales remained more than 20% lower than they had been at the start of the year. AMD took a big hit in Q3 and Q4 of 2006, but they've been progressing well these past few years.
That's so last year. Right? The future cannot rely on past performance alone for momentum. AMD's last quarter was easily predicted more than a year ago. I'm not so short sighted. I have to look toward impact in the future, and not the past.
As for web-driven products - yes, the A2 was largely driven by the web. But was it driven by people typing in "Cowon A2" into Google and going to straight to Cowon's page? It's other websites and marketing that drive the sales - reviewers like Engadget, CNet, DAPReview, hordes of CES bloggers, etc. expose us to these products. The corporate website is a follow-up ... something has to get the information about the product and its site into your hands first. That's not a Cowon specific business model - that's Marketing 101. You have to seek out your consumers; you can't wait for them to seek out you.
Did you know that the #1 way that external sites (the big ones) find out about product line is by corporate press release? Since Cowon doesn't do well in the press release area (except to announce product s that won't deliver anywhere near their "promised" date), I still believe this is an area for Cowon to work on.
I'm sure you have plenty of nice ideas to tidy things up, but claiming you could "make <anyone> the #1 supplier of portable media devices (even ahead of Apple)" would be an arrogant faux pas at the very least if you actually worked in the industry professionally, and is just laughable coming from an outsider. There's a reason Apple has the market share they do, and it's not because they have an amazing product or a clean and informative website.
1. You don't know who your are talking to... do you?
2. I could be one of the creators of a very large company.. yes?
3. I might be speaking out of experience rather than assumption... true?
But... likewise, I don't know who you are either. It's possible that you have had similar experiences with building billion dollar businesses from the ground up. So... I'll gladly defer to you as the keeper of superior knowledge. I always try to learn from the best.
PerlAddict
04-19-2007, 12:19
"EON ago" - Is that a technical and determinate amount of time? Again, let's dispense with the ambiguities.
"Intel will probably release ..." - Speculation abounds. Using 'probably' isn't the best way to convince people you actually know what's going on, generally speaking.
"That's so last year ..." - A very professional way to put it. 'Last year' was less than four months ago ... barely over one quarter. Let's keep it in perspective here.
"Did you know that the #1 way that external sites ..." - Actually, I did. I happen to have worked in web development under ABC for a number of years, not that the experience really has any bearing here. But press releases are part of marketing and PR, not web development - website content, CMS's, and Wikis are a whole different ballgame. If all they did was post the releases on the site and hope that someone would stumble across them, that wouldn't do much good. Hence, it's still the outside marketing that brings people to the inside information.
"You don't know who your are talking to... do you?" - No, I don't, which is why I responded in regards to both possibilities: your assertions of what you could do in regards to Apple's marketshare are either professionally arrogant, or unprofessionally laughable.
"I might be speaking out of experience rather than assumption" - Completely true. However, one would imagine you would likewise be more inclined to post out of experience rather than in assumptions as noted above, should that be the case.
I don't harbor any issue with your having opinions on Cowon's future, or AMD/Intel's for that matter ... everyone is entitled to theirs and it's a constant topic of discussion across the entire tech industry and all the products that encompasses. What I take issue with is someone purporting, "If Cowon had me, they would take the industry by storm," implying that somehow you know better than them even though you are spending time posting about how you could do it here rather than getting out there and actually doing it like they are.
I am simply weary of people bad-mouthing X-company, yet can't put their money where their mouth is; rather, they post rhetoric as if it were the holy-roadmap-of-technology.
It rather reminds me of a conversation I had with an old college buddy discussing a TV series a friend of ours had done for a season. I told the guy I didn't care much for the friend's new show, and he responded, "Yeah, I don't either, but hey - it's better than my show."
Long and short - they're doing it better than you, because at least they're doing it and not just talking about how they could do it.
Long and short - they're doing it better than you, because at least they're doing it and not just talking about how they could do it.
Ok.. you can certainly believe what you want to. I'm fine with that. I guess we can at least agree to see who has more market insight between us anyhow :)
I learn new things everyday.
Oh... and I didn't mean to bad mouth Cowon... I just see some areas that appear to be broken... but, there could be very well be a good business reason for that. So... I'll tone down... no prob. I mean I don't have an interest in Cowon.... it would be different then. But I do like some of their product line.
Long and short - they're doing it better than you, because at least they're doing it and not just talking about how they could do it.
Best quote I have read !!!![thumbsup]
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